Tsunami evacuation is an effective way to save lives from the near-field tsunami. Realistic evacuation simulation can provide valuable information for accurate evacuation risk assessment and effective evacuation planning. Agent-based modeling is ideal for tsunami evacuation simulation due to its capability of capturing the emergent phenomena and modeling the individual-level interactions among agents and the agents’ interactions with the environment. However, existing models usually neglect or simplify some important factors and/or mechanisms in tsunami evacuation. For example, uncertainties in seismic damages to the transportation network are not probabilistically considered (e.g., by simply removing the damaged links (roads/bridges) from the network). Typically a relatively small population (i.e., evacuees) is considered (due to computational challenges) while neglecting population mobility. These simplifications may lead to inaccurate estimation of evacuation risk. Usually, only single traffic mode (e.g., on foot or by car) is considered, while pedestrian speed adjustment and multi-modal evacuation (e.g., on foot and by car) are not considered concurrently. Also, pedestrian–vehicle interaction is usually neglected in the multi-modal evacuation. To address the above limitations, this study proposes a novel and more realistic agent-based tsunami evacuation model for tsunami evacuation simulation and risk assessment. Uncertainties in seismic damages to all links in the transportation network as well as uncertainties in other evacuation parameters are explicitly modeled and considered. A novel and more realistic multi-modal evacuation model is proposed that explicitly considers the pedestrian–vehicle interaction, walking speed variability, and speed adjustment for both the pedestrian and car according to traffic density. In addition, several different population sizes are used to model population mobility and its impact on tsunami evacuation risk. The proposed model is applied within a simulation-based framework to assess the tsunami evacuation risk assessment for Seaside, Oregon.
为了讨论末次冰期以来巽他陆架东北部植被情况及巽他陆架在冰期时的碳循环意义.对位于南海西南部陆坡的18252-3站位岩心柱沉积物中长链正构烷烃组分的平均链长（ACL27-33）、碳优势指数（CPI27-33）、烷烃含量（∑oddC27-C33）、及烷烃比值等指标进行了分析.结果显示:末次冰期以来CPI27-33表现出与海平面变化具有很好的相关性.冰期时,CPI27-33值表现出明显的奇偶优势,指示了叶蜡烷烃新鲜程度很高,应该主要来自附近出露陆架区的近源供应.冰期低海平面时∑oddC27-C33（ng/g）总体高于全新世,也与陆源供应靠近陆坡区有关.ACL27-33自40 ka B.P.以来呈上升趋势,指示草本植被发育增多和/或气候略为变干.从烷烃记录来看,冰期陆架出露时,n-C29及n-C31烷烃相对含量相差不大且均远高于n-C33,至全新世n-C29显著降低,而n-C33则显著增高.结合ACL27-33及烷烃比值数据,可以大致推测冰期出露的研究站位附近陆架地区很可能以热带雨林分布为主.将本文数据与巽他陆架东南部陆坡区数据进行综合分析,推测面向南海的巽他陆架东部地区在冰期时呈现热带雨林景观的可能性很大.由于雨林植被具有巨大的碳蓄积量,因此巽他陆架在冰期时很可能会是一个巨大的陆地碳储库. 相似文献
The changes in a selection of extreme climate indices(maximum of daily maximum temperature(TXx),minimum of daily minimum temperature(TNn),annual total precipitation when the daily precipitation exceeds the 95th percentile of wet-day precipitation(very wet days,R95p),and the maximum number of consecutive days with less than 1 mm of precipitation(consecutive dry days,CDD))were projected using multi-model results from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in the early,middle,and latter parts of the 21st century under different Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)emissions scenarios.The results suggest that TXx and TNn will increase in the future and,moreover,the increases of TNn under all RCPs are larger than those of TXx.R95p is projected to increase and CDD to decrease significantly.The changes in TXx,TNn,R95p,and CDD in eight sub-regions of China are different in the three periods of the 21st century,and the ranges of change for the four indices under the higher emissions scenario are projected to be larger than those under the lower emissions scenario.The multi-model simulations show remarkable consistency in their projection of the extreme temperature indices,but poor consistency with respect to the extreme precipitation indices.More substantial inconsistency is found in those regions where high and low temperatures are likely to happen for TXx and TNn,respectively.For extreme precipitation events(R95p),greater uncertainty appears in most of the southern regions,while for drought events(CDD)it appears in the basins of Xinjiang.The uncertainty in the future changes of the extreme climate indices increases with the increasing severity of the emissions scenario. 相似文献
